I knew it wasn’t gonna be that easy. Hillary Clinton didn’t rise this far just to ride out before winter’s even over. Naw, I kinda figured she had some fight left and I pretty much knew that Ohio and Texas would be her last stands. But even with that, she’s still in deep, deep trouble.
To go back to the boxing metaphor I used last time, Obama has been winning rounds impressively, piling up the points. A couple stunning blows here and there, but no real knockdowns. The closest contest which he won was 17%. When he wins, he wins big, meaning that he’s racking up delegates. Hillary’s wins last night, on the other hand, were all by quite a bit less than 17%. Ohio was 9% and Texas was a tightly-contested 4%. While it’s looks good for her to say that she won a round, the fact is that she’s at the point where she pretty much needs a straight-up knockout to win. Even though she picked up wins last night, if I’m correct about the Democratic process, Obama still captured some delegates, so his lead is lessened only slightly.
The thing is this: Texas and Ohio notwithstanding, every round is pretty much a must-win for Hillary now. Not only that, according to some estimates, she’d have to win every contest convincingly - to the tune of 60% of the electorate - in order to make up the deficit. That’s probably not gonna be all that easy to pull off.
Of course, a boxing metaphor wouldn’t be complete if there wasn’t some potential for a screwy decision. While my current thinking is that Hillary would need a knockout in order to win, if Hillary makes a couple more wins, not necessarily even impressive wins, that whole superdelegate issue will again raise its head. If she gets the nomination like that, after Obama’s gotten the majority of the pledged delegates? Maaaaannnnnnnnn…not only will all the interest the political process has earned be squandered at the expense of politics as usual, the Democrats’ relationship with their most loyal voting bloc will be somewhat compromised. I think.
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Yes, it will mean serious rancour within the party if it goes down like that. He’d've won the most states, the popular vote and the most delegates, all to be overturned by muckety-mucks?…naw, that bird won’t fly at all.
As much as the superdelegates remain up in the air, I think the unresolved fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida is another wild card that has to be factored into the equation–no one will be breathing easy until the very end of the convention. I don’t think it’s just Hilary who is going to be making the argument that at least some delegates from those states are going to have to be seated unless the Democratic Party really has the balls to disenfranchise every eligible voter in Michigan and Florida. If these two states are made to feel scorned now, they may not be as receptive come election time and that would be a huge disaster.
I think the only way the Democrats win in November is if Hilary and Barack resurrect themselves on the same ticket–because they’re both going to be wiped out mentally, physically and yes, politically. This campaign is going to get nastier. If they don’t find a way to come together, I think McCain can squeak out a win–he’s a war hero, he’s a nice guy with a gorgeous wife, and a lot more liberal than your average Republican. If he can portray himself as the agent of “just the right amount of needed change” (as opposed to Barack’s “inexperienced change” or Hilary’s “polarizing change”) he has a legitimate shot.